Oct

20

Obama Sin Laden Our New President?

By admin

Its now several weeks before the Presidential election and it would appear that the Democrat has a solid lead, if you believe the polls. In fact many are predicting an Obama landslide. If you watch the guy on television these days, he is acting like somebody who has already won with the election being a mere formality. And who can blame him – according to the prediction markets (where large amounts of money a wagered on the outcome) Obama is an 85-15 favorite at both Intrade.com and the University of Iowa Electronic Markets. These prediction markets have an uncanny record of accurately forecasting results. As the saying goes, opinion backed by money is the best poll there is.

Does McCain really only have a 15% chance of winning the election? That’s about 5-1 odds against! The Republicans may scoff at this, but obviously not many of them are creating accounts and placing wagers on their candidate or the odds would improve. If you really think he even has anywhere near a 50/50 chance this bet is a no brainer, winning $550 for every $100 risked.

Some Republicans are now quoting something known in Southern California as the Bradley effect. Many years ago there was a very popular black mayor in Los Angeles by the name of Tom Bradley. He ran for Governor and was way ahead in the polls, like by 12 to 15 points. But when the voters got into the booth and closed that curtain behind them – when it came right down to casting that vote – they couldn’t do it. He lost in a landslide.

So the Bradley effect means putting on a good show for the sake of being politically correct. But when it comes down to actually casting your vote in private, are you really going to vote for a black President? It’s an interesting concept and a real test of how far our society as a whole has progressed from the racial issues we were afflicted by only half a century ago. Personally I’m glad Obama has such a solid lead because now we can test the theory. I find that much more interesting than the election itself! Perhaps quoting the Bradley effect is just the last batch of straw that desperate Republicans are clinging to. We shall see.

There is one thing I find astounding about Obama’s lead however, and that is his name. Coming from an advertising background I would never had thought he stood much of a chance at getting this far, simply based on word association. During the last administration our country suffered the worst terrorist attack in history, orchestrated by a guy named:

Osama Bin Laden

…and now we are about to elect the next Presidential ticket which goes by the name:

Obama Biden

Am I the only one who notices this stuff? Does word association not matter anymore? Can General Mills release new cereal now called Poisen Puffs and sell the heck out them? Is this really happening? Or is it all a big joke? Or is nobody really paying attention anymore?

Papa Riah

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